Deterrence: Testing the Effects of Perceived Sanction Certainty on Probation Violations

Deterrence theory has been repeatedly used to explain individuals’choices to commit vs. not commit crimes. Its utilitarian premise is that individuals will choose to commit or not commit crimes based on the certainty, swiftness, and severity of punishments. This study examines the perceived certainty of sanctions among offenders mandated into intensive probation and the effects of varying levels of perceived sanction certainty in deterring offenders from violating probation requirements. Data from an Intensive Supervision Probation program in New Jersey are used. Results support the salience of offenders’perceptions of sanction certainty on their intensive probation outcomes, and implications for policy are discussed.