Unintended Beneficiaries of Military AI: How Third-Party States Reshape Strategic Stability

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

While major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia are rapidly advancing military AI, with initiatives like NATO’s AI Strategy shaping a new competitive landscape, this study examines a critical yet underexplored question: How do third-party states acquire strategic autonomy in the military AI era, and how their behavior reshapes strategic stability? Using a qualitative case study approach, this research employs a two-dimensional analytical framework characterized by technological capability foundation and strategic positioning choice to analyze strategic decisions across multiple third-party states. The study finds that four traits of military AI reshape their strategic options: its general-purpose nature lowers entry barriers across domains; dual-use ambiguity expands acquisition pathways; low marginal cost enables rapid capability diffusion; and data-dependency turns local datasets into critical absorptive assets. Together, these properties erode traditional great-power technology monopolies. Based on these features, five patterns of third-party behavior are emerging. The US allies, such as Japan and Australia, build interdependence through co-development and data sharing. Transfer recipients like Pakistan and the UAE localize AI by exploiting its general-purpose character. Hedgers such as Singapore and India diversify through flexible procurement of software-layer services. Chokepoint controllers, including the Netherlands and South Korea, gain influence via critical supply-chain roles. Autonomous developers like France pursue strategic independence. Overall, regarding strategic stability, third-party behavior creates dual effects: power decentralization enhances constraint mechanisms through supply chain interdependence, yet simultaneously introduces destabilizing forces such as compressed decision-making timelines. Military AI diffusion is facilitating a technology-driven, quasi-multipolar security order.