What Makes Civil Wars Protracted? A Review of Systemic, Organizational & Individual-Level Factors

This study investigates the factors behind the increasing prevalence of intrastate conflicts since World War II, contrasting with the global decline in interstate wars, particularly in the developing world. While advancements in technology, society, and economy have facilitated a reduction in interstate conflicts, intrastate wars have persisted due to a decline in their terminations rather than an increase in their onsets. The study attributes this prolongation to systemic, organizational, and individual-level factors. At the systemic level, processes such as decolonization, Cold War interventions, and the post-Cold War multipolar order has established conditions that foster civil wars, often exacerbated by external interventions driven by power dynamics and competitive interests. Additionally, neoliberal economic policies have fragmented the global economy and marginalized the Global South, fostering the emergence of “regional conflict complexes” reliant on illicit economies. Organizationally, factors such as state capacity, geographical features, and resource availability enhance the resilience of rebel groups, particularly in rugged, resource-rich territories near international borders that facilitate contraband access and enable evasion of state control. Furthermore, the quality of leadership and cohesion within insurgent groups significantly affect conflict duration, as elite manipulation and factionalism can obstruct peace efforts. Lastly, at the individual level, motivations shaped by grievances associated with ethnic, political, or economic marginalization, alongside economic incentives for private gain, largely sustain involvement in armed conflicts. The study concludes that a comprehensive understanding of these complex factors is crucial for developing effective policy strategies to reduce conflict durations, advancing theoretical and practical approaches to civil war resolution.