Digital Inclusive Finance and Social Sustainability: Examining Entrepreneurial Pathways and Performance Among China’s Migrant Population for Inclusive Growth

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Digital inclusive finance (DIF) serves as a critical mechanism for sustainable economic development among marginalized populations. However, DIF’s impact on China’s 376 million migrants remains understudied, despite their significance for inclusive growth. This study provides the first comprehensive empirical analysis of DIF–migrant entrepreneurship relationships using nationally representative data and multiple analytical approaches. Three key findings emerge: First, DIF significantly reduces entrepreneurship likelihood among migrant populations (marginal effect: −0.449, p < 0.01). Second, heterogeneity analysis reveals differential impacts across entrepreneurial motivations—specifically, inhibiting necessity-driven entrepreneurship (marginal effect: −0.426) while showing no significant impact on opportunity-driven entrepreneurship. Third, while DIF reduces overall entrepreneurial participation, it substantially enhances income levels and the employment scale of existing migrant entrepreneurs. Mechanism analysis reveals that DIF operates through expanding urban employment demand and raising wage levels, thereby increasing entrepreneurship’s opportunity cost for migrants. These findings provide evidence for leveraging digital finance to achieve SDG 8 (Decent Work) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) while ensuring equitable access to digital dividends for vulnerable populations.