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BACKGROUND: Mortality from stroke has declined in many countries. This decline may result from a fall in incidence of stroke or a decrease in case fatality from stroke. The present study was conducted to investigate the temporal trends of incidence rate, mortality rate, and case fatality of stroke in an urban and rural Chinese population. METHODS: A community-based registry study was established in 1983 in defined rural and urban areas of Shanghai with a population aged 35 to 74 years of approximately 86,000 subjects, adhering to the methods and definitions of the World Health Organization MONICA protocol. All stroke events occurring in the population aged 35 to 74 years in these areas were registered by a special three-level case-registration system. RESULTS: From 1984 through 1991, 1391 stroke cases were identified. No significant change in the incidence rate of stroke was observed from 1984 through 1991 in men and women living in rural and urban areas. Age-standardized mortality rates (per 100,000 person years) of stroke declined significantly during this period, except for rural women. The annual changes and 95% confidence intervals of age-standardized mortality rates were: for rural men -4.6% (-5.4, -3.9), for rural women -0.6% (-1.6, 0.5), for urban men -2.5% (-3.5, -1.6), and for urban women -4.7% (-5.2, -4.2). A significant decrease in case fatality from stroke from 1984 through 1991 was found among men living in rural areas (from 62.4% to 46.0%) and among women living in urban areas (from 48.4% to 33.3%). Overall case fatality, however, showed a nonsignificant decline over time. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a decline in stroke mortality rate in a rural and urban Chinese population. No significant changes in stroke incidence were found in this study, whereas case fatality appeared to have decreased, in particular among men living in rural areas and women living in urban areas.
Hong et al. (Wed,) studied this question.