Antecedents to Spontaneous Counterfactual Thinking: Effects of Expectancy Violation and Outcome Valence

Three studies examined the effects of expectancy violation and outcome valence on spontaneous counterfactual thinking. In Study 1, prior expectations and outcome valence were varied orthogonally in a vignette. More counterfactuals were generated after failures and unexpected outcomes. Also, more additive than subtractive counterfatuals were found after failure, particularly unexpected failure, and more subtractive than additive counterfactuals were found after unexpected success. Evidence for the generality of these results was obtained in Study 2, in which counterfactuals were assessed after students' real-life exam performances. In Study 3, the authors further assessed nonspontaneous counterfactuals, which were shown to differ in number and structure from spontaneous counterfactuals. Discussion centers around antecedents to spontaneous counterfactual thinking and comparisons to research on spontaneous causal attributions.