Demographic Differentials in the World System: A Research Note

Data on demographic variables and development for 92 countries during the periods 1960-70 and 1970-77 are analyzed. Individual dependent variables were regressed on logged values of energy consumption to control for development effects on demographic rates. The hypothesis is presented that vital rates would be highest in periphery nations at intermediate levels in semi-periphery nations and lowest in core nations. Some results are: 1) in both periods semi-periphery and periphery rates were higher than core rates controlling for development; 2) periphery growth rates were only slightly higher than semi-periphery rates; 3) in the earlier period status alone contributed to 10.6% and the coefficient of determination but its contribution fell by 1/2 to 5.3% in the 2nd period; 4) total explained variance rose by 8% between the periods; 5) all estimated fertility equations contained significant regression coefficients for status that were appropriately rank-ordered; 6) degree of dependency was positively related to fertility; 7) in only 12 equations were the status coefficients for mortality significant and most likely the moderate status effects on population growth rates resulted from the absence of mortality effects combined with strong status effects on fertility; and 8) infant and child mortality are positively related to fertility. Thus non-core status in the world economic system was associated with higher fertility and population growth rates than would be expected based on levels of national development and child mortality; mortality levels were not similarly affected. Also although fertility relationships were very strong the overall pattern of relationships called into question the causal argument on which the hypotheses were grounded. Another promising hypothesis is that high fertility in developing countries is attributable to the political economy of the persisting traditional family.