Considering Criminal Continuity: Testing for Heterogeneity and State Dependence in the Association of Past to Future Offending

This study examines the extent to which the positive association between past and future offending can be explained by either (un)observed population heterogeneity, or by state dependence. We use criminal career data derived from (1) a self-report survey administered to 2,900 Dutch individuals aged 15 years or older, and (2) the Criminal Career and Life-course Study (CCLS) that has official data on a 4% ( N = 4,684) sample of Dutch offenders convicted in 1977. Using hierarchical linear modelling we find both heterogeneity and state dependence partially explaining continuity in crime in both samples. In addition, we find that the impact of prior offending decreases over time and that that impact depends on the total number of previously committed offences.