Testing Coercive Explanations for Order: The Determinants of Law Enforcement Strength over Time

This research uses time-series regressions to explain yearly changes in the per capita number of law enforcement personnel in the U.S. Using a measure of economic inequality that are sensitive to the presence of the rich, the results show that shifts in economic inequality and movements in the crime rates lead to changes in police strength. However, quadratic specifications suggest that diminishing returns are present. Unemployment, nonwhite-white income ratios, and inequality indicators less sensitive to the presence of the rich are insignificant, but shifts in the strength of the Republican party and the tax base also help explain changes in police strength. The results support cross-sectional research that finds a relationship between this form of economic inequality and law enforcement strength, but this relationship is historically contingent