Impact of Exercise Patterns on Trajectories of Medical Expenditure in Older Adults : A Latent Growth Modeling Approach

Purpose: This study aims to investigate the impact of physical activity patterns on the longitudinal trajectories of medical expenditure among older adults. Method: Data were analyzed from the 6th (2016) to the 9th (2022) waves of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA). The final sample consisted of 2,823 older adults (aged 60–80 at the time of the 6th wave) who completed in all follow-up surveys. Descriptive statistics and Latent Growth Modeling (LGM) were conducted using IBM SPSS 21.0 and AMOS 21.0. Results: First, control variables, including gender, age, and marital status, did not show statistically significant effects on either the initial level (intercept) or the rate of change (slope) of medical expenses. Second, regarding the impact of physical activity patterns on the initial level of medical expenditure, exercise duration and frequency were not significant, whereas exercise time had a significant positive (+) effect. This suggests that groups with longer exercise times exhibited higher initial medical expenditures, potentially reflecting greater health consciousness and proactive healthcare utilization. Third, in terms of the rate of change, the total period of exercise had a significant positive (+) effect on the slope, whereas exercise time had a significant negative (−) effect. Conclusion: Notably, while exercise time was positively associated with the initial level of medical expenses, it was negatively associated with the long-term rate of change, identifying it as a key factor in decelerating the growth of medical costs. These findings suggest that the volume of physical activity, specifically exercise time, may contribute to a long-term reduction in the medical burden during old age. This study provides fundamental data for developing preventive healthcare policies and promoting community sports in preparation for an ultra-aged society.