Media Choice Pathways and Conditional Effects in Professional Basketball Consumption

Purpose: This study examines whether prioritizing live attendance in professional basketball reduces subsequent digital platform use and explores the structural pathways of media choice. Method: Survey data from 906 Korean adults who watched or attended professional basketball games between 2023 and 2025 were analyzed. A causal forest–based quasi-experimental approach was employed to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) and conditional average treatment effect (CATE) of selecting live attendance as the primary medium on digital platform use. Demographic covariates were controlled for to ensure robust estimation. Additionally, transition matrix analysis examined sequential movement across ranked media choices (1st to 3rd priority), and Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) combined with k-means clustering identified latent consumer segments. Results: The findings revealed that live attendance significantly decreased digital platform use (ATE = −0.292), with more pronounced effects observed among younger consumers. Media choices exhibited significant path dependency, where initial selection heavily influenced subsequent options. Furthermore, three distinct consumer segments were identified: (1) traditional media-centered, (2) live attendance-immersive, and (3) digital expansion-oriented. Conclusion: Professional basketball consumption follows a segmented and hierarchical structure in which live attendance tends to function as a terminal consumption experience rather than as a gateway to digital platform engagement.