Diffusion–Based Degradation Reliability Model with Imperfect Maintenance for Industrial Conveyor Belt Systems

This study develops a stochastic degradation-based reliability framework for mechanical systems subject to interacting operational stresses and imperfect maintenance. The degradation dynamics are formulated in cumulative damage space and modeled using a geometric Itô diffusion process, in which the drift term incorporates a multiplicative degradation kernel representing the combined influence of load, speed, misalignment, and environmental exposure. Imperfect maintenance is represented through a continuous attenuation functional embedded within the drift structure, allowing maintenance actions to reduce degradation growth without restoring the system to an as-good-as-new condition. Using a logarithmic transformation, the multiplicative stochastic differential equation is converted into an additive diffusion process, enabling analytical treatment via Itô’s lemma. A closed-form reliability expression is then obtained through first-passage analysis, yielding a lognormal survival function governed directly by the degradation dynamics. Numerical evaluation demonstrates physically consistent wear-out behavior and confirms the stability of the derived reliability formulation. The model further enables reliability-based maintenance optimization through preventive replacement analysis. Sensitivity results indicate that system reliability is strongly influenced by the degradation growth parameter governing the stochastic drift. The proposed framework provides a mathematically tractable connection between stochastic degradation modeling, reliability theory, and maintenance optimization. Beyond its application to conveyor belt systems, the formulation offers a general analytical structure for reliability assessment of degrading engineering systems governed by multiplicative stochastic dynamics.