Simulating the Economic Impacts of an Ecological Product Tax Under Carbon Neutrality

Valuing ecological products is a crucial strategy for achieving carbon neutrality goals through nature-based solutions. Focusing on the Northeast China black soil region, this study provides a quantitative simulation of an Ecological Product Tax by integrating the InVEST model with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The integrated framework first quantifies the region’s carbon sink value at 636.468 billion RMB, establishing a numerical benchmark. Subsequently, the CGE model simulations demonstrate that internalizing this ecological value through taxation effectively transforms ecological capital into economic momentum. This process is shown to notably boost regional employment, capital returns, social consumption, and investment, thereby facilitating a transition toward a domestic demand-driven economy. A heterogeneity analysis further reveals significant disparities in these effects across industries and regions, Liaoning benefits most from capital deepening, while Jilin shows a stronger consumption-driven response. The study provides robust simulation evidence that the “Ecological Product Tax” mechanism optimizes industrial structure and enhances ecological efficiency. Consequently, we recommend the implementation of a tiered ecological product tax system synchronized with existing environmental tax frameworks to achieve sustainable industrial revitalization.