Dynamics of Formal Political Structure: An Event-History Analysis

The authors apply event history analysis to records on 90 countries from 1950-1975 to test hypotheses consistent with world systems and modernization hypotheses. The hypotheses predict factors associated with political change from/to one-party and multi-party governments. Modernization hypotheses predict that changes making a society more modern (that is, more like European societies) increase the chances for multi-party democratic governments. World systems hypotheses predict that governments are more affected by a country’s place in the world economic system than by internal changes. Results here show small effects of modernizing on government form, and event history methods show a complex relationship between GNP per capita and form of government.