Multivariate prediction of the first major cerebrovascular event in an Italian population sample of middle-aged men followed up for 25 years.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The present investigation was aimed at evaluating the incidence and prediction of a first major cerebrovascular (fatal or nonfatal) event. METHODS: The study population included the two Italian rural samples of the Seven Countries Study (namely, Montegiorgio and Crevalcore), accounting for a total of 1,712 men aged 40-59 years at entry and followed up for mortality and morbidity for 25 years. A number of individual variables measured at baseline, at the fifth year, and at the tenth year of follow-up and possibly related to cerebrovascular events were considered. Of the 1,709 subjects free from major cerebrovascular events at entry 171 developed a first major cerebrovascular event, but for the multivariate Cox model analysis only 1,572 subjects and 152 events were employed due to some exclusions for missing data. RESULTS: Systolic blood pressure, indexes of respiratory function (protective), and physical activity at work (protective) demonstrated significant predictive roles for all ages and all lengths of follow-up considered. Other factors (presence of arrhythmias, presence of arcus senilis, and skinfold thickness protective), significantly contributed to the prediction, but in only some models. Time-related changes in systolic blood pressure significantly improved the prediction of cerebrovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: The multivariate prediction performed in this report allowed the validation of three risk factors (systolic blood pressure, respiratory function indexes, and physical activity at work) whose predictive powers remain stable with aging. The need for further studies specifically aimed at discriminating hemorrhagic from thrombotic events is suggested.