Trends in Total Mortality and Mortality from Heart Disease in 26 Countries from 1950 to 1978

Thom T J (Epidemiology and Biometry Program, National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, Federal Bldg. Room 2C-08, Bethesda, MD 20205, USA). Epstein FH, Feldman J J and Leaverton P E. Trends in total mortality and mortality from heart disease in 26 countries from 1950 to 1978. International Journal of Epidemiology 1985, 14: 510–520. Death rates for total mortality and for non-rheumatic heart disease and hypertension (‘heart disease’) are described for men and women ages 45–64 in six time periods during 1950–78 for 26 countries. Rates for men in high-rate countries are three times those in low-rate countries. This variation is more striking for men than women. There were marked increases for heart disease in men in most countries, but in 13 countries there was a slowing or reversal of that trend in the 1960's or 1970's or acceleration of an already downward trend. In 22 countries long-term declines for heart disease occurred in women. There was a widening of the north/south gradient in Europe and of the male/female ratio of heart disease mortality. Countries with high heart disease death rates in men had high ratios of heart disease to total death. Other countries experienced a rise in proportionate mortality. In women, proportionate mortality for heart disease remained flat or declined in most countries. In spite of these changes in rates, each country seems to have a range for heart disease mortality that is characteristic of its population and environmental setting so that profound changes in rates do not substantially alter their relative ranking. Our intent is to stimulate the search for reasons why heart disease mortality recently declined in some countries but not in others (already begun in the WHO-sponsored MONICA programme). Our forthcoming monograph on international mortality trends for the major causes of death will be a next step in this process.