Violent-Crime Rates and Racial Composition: Covergence Over Time

Considerable research reports that racial composition strongly affects violent-crime rates. Unfortunately, most research ignores the possibility that violent-crime rates may affect racial composition. Using a sample of U. S. cities, the authors examine the reciprocal effects of racial composition and violent-crime rates over the last 40 years. While racial composition strongly affects the change in violent-crime rates from 1980 to 1990, it only minimally affects changes in rates for the previous three decades; but violent-crime rates (especially robbery) substantially affect the change in racial composition for all four decades. Indeed, robbery rates appear to play a significant role in the white flight from central cities.