Voting in Kenya: Putting Ethnicity in Perspective

Abstract Do Kenyans vote according to ethnic identities or policy interests? Based on results from a national probability sample survey conducted in December 2007, this article shows that, while ethnic origins drive voting patterns, elections in Kenya amount to more than a mere ethnic census. We start by reviewing how Kenyans see themselves, which is mainly in non-ethnic terms. We then report on how they see others, whom they fear will organize politically along ethnic lines. People therefore vote defensively in ethnic blocs, but not exclusively. In December 2007, they also took particular policy issues into account, including living standards, corruption and majimbo (federalism). We demonstrate that the relative weight that individuals grant to ethnic and policy voting depends in good part on how they define their group identities, with 'ethnics' engaging mainly in identity voting and 'non-ethnics' giving more weight to interests and issues. Notes 1. CitationKimenyi, Ethnic Diversity; CitationMuigai, 'Ethnicity and the Renewal of Competitive Politics'. 2. CitationOyugi, 'Ethnicity in the Electoral Process'; CitationOrvis, 'Moral Ethnicity'; CitationApollos, 'Ethnicity, Violence and Democracy'. 3. CitationLichbach and Zuckerman, Comparative Politics. 4. CitationLewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 'Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes'; CitationGeys, 'Explaining Voter Turnout'. 5. CitationRemmer, 'The Political Impact of Economic Crisis'; CitationPacek and Radcliff, 'Economic Voting and the Welfare State'. 6. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict; CitationKalipeni, 'Regional Polarisation in Voting Pattern'; CitationNugent, 'Ethnicity as an Explanatory Factor'. 7. Chandra, Why Ethnic Parties Succeed. 8. Birnir, Ethnicity and Electoral Politics. 9. CitationNorris and Mattes, 'Does Ethnicity Determine Support for the Governing Party'. 10. Posner and Simon, 'Economic Conditions and Incumbent Support'; CitationYoude, 'Economics and Government Popularity in Ghana'; CitationLindberg and Morrison, 'Are African Voters Really Ethnic or Clientelistic?' 11. Ferree, 'The Micro-Foundations of Ethnic Voting'; see also Mattes and Piombo, 'Opposition Parties and the Voters in South Africa's General Election of 1999'; CitationErdmann, 'The Cleavage Model, Ethnicity and Voter Alignment in Africa'. 12. The authors thank Roxana Gutierrez Romero of CSAE for managing survey fieldwork. 13. Posner, Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa, 104. 14. Bratton, Mattes and Gyimah-Boadi, Public Opinion, Democracy and Market Reform in Africa, 307. 15. CitationPosner, Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa, 92.