Key result
HellenicSCORE II+ accurately predicts 10-year CVD risk in Greek adults.
Why the study?
The study aimed to develop an updated model, the HellenicSCORE II+, to predict 10-year CVD risk for Greek adults based on established risk factors and stratified by diabetes history and Lp(a) levels.
Does the HellenicSCORE II+ model accurately predict 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in Greek adults?
Observational (n=3,042)
Does the HellenicSCORE II+ model accurately predict 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in Greek adults?
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
The HellenicSCORE II+ model, which incorporates Lp(a) levels and diabetes status, provides accurate 10-year CVD risk prediction for the Greek population.
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop an updated model to predict 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk for Greek adults, i.e., the HellenicSCORE II+, based on smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), total and high-density-lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, and stratified by age group, sex, history of diabetes, and lipoprotein (Lp)-a levels. METHODS: Individual CVD risk scores were calculated through logit-function models using the beta coefficients derived from SCORE2. The Attica study data were used for the calibration (3,042 participants, aged 45 (14) years; 49.1% men). Discrimination ability of the HellenicSCORE II+ was assessed using C-index (range 0-1), adjusted for competing risks. RESULTS: The mean HellenicSCORE II+ score was 6.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.9% to 6.6%) for men and 3.7% (95% CI 3.5% to 4.0%) for women (p < 0.001), and were higher compared to the relevant SCORE2; 23.5% of men were classified as low risk, 40.2% as moderate, and 36.3% as high risk, whereas the corresponding percentages for women were 56.2%, 18.6%, and 25.2%. C-statistic index was 0.88 for women and 0.79 for men when the HellenicSCORE II+ was applied to the Attica study data, suggesting very good accuracy. Stratified analysis by Lp(a) levels led to a 4% improvement in correct classification among participants with high Lp(a). CONCLUSION: HellenicSCORE II+ values were higher than SCORE2, confirming that the Greek population is at moderate-to-high CVD risk. Stratification by Lp(a) levels may assist in better identifying individuals at high CVD risk.
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Panagiotakos et al. (2023) conducted an observational in Cardiovascular disease risk prediction (n=3,042). HellenicSCORE II+ vs. SCORE2 was evaluated on Discrimination ability (C-index) for 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. The HellenicSCORE II+ model accurately predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in Greek adults, achieving a C-statistic of 0.88 for women and 0.79 for men.
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