Key result
SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP risk algorithms demonstrated good discrimination for predicting 10-year risk of MI, stroke, and cardiovascular death with a C-statistic of 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.81).
Why the study?
The study aimed to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP algorithms for estimating 10-year risk of cardiovascular events in a Cypriot cohort.
Do the SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP risk algorithms accurately predict 10-year cardiovascular risk in a non-diabetic Cypriot cohort?
Cohort (n=908)
Do the SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP risk algorithms accurately predict 10-year cardiovascular risk in a non-diabetic Cypriot cohort?
Effect estimate: C-statistic 0.76 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.81)
SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP algorithms perform well in the Cypriot population for predicting 10-year risk of MI, stroke, and fatal CV disease, though the high-risk algorithm is better for estimating all ASCVD events.
I need the paper details to write a precise implication that does not restate the finding. Searching now.Found the Cypriot cohort paper. Opening it for study design, calibration, and how the C-statistic was framed.May support SCORE2 use in similar moderate-risk Europeans; leaves open practice change given this small observational validation.
BACKGROUND: SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP algorithms and associated online calculators provide a new and easy method of estimating the 10-year cardiovascular risk in apparently healthy Europeans. The aim of the study was to determine the performance of these algorithms in terms of discrimination and calibration in the cohort of the Cyprus Epidemiological Study on Atherosclerosis (CESA), not only for the 10-year risk for myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and cardiovascular death, but also for all types of atherosclerotic cardiovascular events (ASCVE). METHODS: SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP for low-risk regions were calculated in a non-diabetic subset of CESA consisting of 908 people (mean age±SD: 57.8±10.5; range 40-89; 58.8% female) using baseline risk factors. Mean follow-up was 13.2±3.7 years (range 1-17) with 89 primary endpoints (MI, stroke and cardiovascular death) and 136 secondary endpoints (primary endpoints, angina, cardiac failure, coronary revascularization, transient ischemic attack, claudication and critical limb ischemia). RESULTS: The C-statistic for the prediction of the primary endpoint for all ages was 0.76 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.81) and the observed 10-year event rate was similar to the predicted one. However, the observed 10-year rate for secondary events was similar to the estimated one only when the algorithm for high-risk regions was used. CONCLUSIONS: SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP moderate risk algorithms perform well in the Cypriot population for predicting the 10-year risk for MI, stroke and fatal cardiovascular disease. However, an estimate of the 10-year risk for all ASCVD events is best calculated from the high-risk algorithm.
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Nicolaides et al. (2022) conducted a cohort in Apparently healthy, non-diabetic individuals (n=908). SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP risk algorithms was evaluated on Myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and cardiovascular death (C-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.81). SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP risk algorithms demonstrated good discrimination for predicting 10-year risk of MI, stroke, and cardiovascular death with a C-statistic of 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.81).
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