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May 7, 2021European Heart JournalOpen Access

SCORE2-OP risk prediction algorithms: estimating incident cardiovascular event risk in older persons in four geographical risk regions

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Key result

SCORE2-OP accurately estimates 5- and 10-year cardiovascular event risk in older adults.

Why the study?

The study aimed to derive and validate the SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) risk model to estimate 5- and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in individuals aged over 70 years across four geographical risk regions.

Does the SCORE2-OP risk model accurately estimate 5- and 10-year incident cardiovascular event risk in older persons without pre-existing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease across different geographical regions?

Population

28 503 derivation and 338 615 external validation individuals without pre-existing atherosclerotic CVD

Design

Derivation and external validation cohort study

Authors

TVTamar I. de VriesUtrecht UniversityMCMarie Therese CooneyPreventive CardiologyRSRandi SelmerPreventive Cardiology

Discussion

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Implication

May support risk stratification in adults ≥70 years; extends SCORE2-OP validation but leaves open impact on outcomes.

Key Points

  • The study aimed to create and validate the SCORE2-OP model for estimating 5- and 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in individuals aged over 70.
  • Derived sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models for CVD risk in individuals aged over 65 from the Cohort of Norway (N=28,503).
  • Included factors such as age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and cholesterol levels.
  • Externally validated with data from 6 additional populations (N=338,615) for generalizability.
  • C-indices for external validation ranged from 0.63 (95% CI 0.61–0.65) to 0.67 (95% CI 0.64–0.69).
  • Models demonstrated significant variation in estimated 10-year CVD event risk across four geographical regions.
  • Regional calibration of expected versus observed risks was deemed satisfactory.

Structured PICO

Does the SCORE2-OP risk model accurately estimate 5- and 10-year incident cardiovascular event risk in older persons without pre-existing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease across different geographical regions?

P
Population
Individuals aged over 65 (derivation cohort) and over 70 (target/validation) without pre-existing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Derivation cohort n=28,503 (Cohort of Norway); external validation in 6 additional study populations n=338,615.
I
Intervention
SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) risk prediction model (incorporating age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and total- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol)
O
Outcome
5- and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (composite of CVD mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke)composite

The SCORE2-OP risk model provides a validated, region-calibrated tool to estimate 5- and 10-year cardiovascular risk in older adults (≥70 years) to guide shared decision-making for risk factor treatment.

Cite This Study

Vries et al. (2021) studied this question. The SCORE2-OP risk model accurately estimates 5- and 10-year cardiovascular event risk in older adults, showing C-indices between 0.63 and 0.67 across regions.

synapsesocial.com/papers/697a2e3c4ebe3b298911b22ehttps://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehab312

Topics

Women and heart disease
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Also Consider

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  1. 1Cardiovascular risk estimation in older persons: SCORE O.P.2015 · 175 citations
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