Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
van Dijk et al. (2025) attempt to replicate our previous study. Major problems are discussed. First, their replication (in Study 1) uses three datasets, but none of the three are suitable for the task. Second, there is confusion about the time period covered by the data, and confusion about whether growth is measured over three years or two years. Third, ideally, the replication should use an indicator that has the same denominator, and also the same numerator. Fourth, the proposed indicator of persistence in Study 2 seems incapable of distinguishing between cases of positive persistence and negative persistence, which is of course a fundamental requirement of a persistence indicator. To summarize, we refer the reader instead to our own recently-published replication on 20 EU countries, that finds different results. • Van Dijk, Leendertse, Stam, and van Rijnsoever (2025)’s attempt to replicate our previous study is discussed • Their replication (in Study 1) uses three datasets, but none of the three are suitable for the task • There is confusion about the time period covered by the data, and about whether growth is measured over 3 years or 2 years • The proposed indicator of persistence cannot distinguish between cases of positive persistence and negative persistence
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Coad et al. (2025) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 10 related papers. Consider them for comparative context: