Conflict-Induced Land Use Change and Urban Expansion in the Sahel: Insights from Bankass, Mali

Bankass district, located in the heart of the Malian Sahel, has been severely affected by escalating armed conflict since 2014, resulting in significant transformations in land use and local livelihoods. This study examines the effects of prolonged conflict on land use dynamics, population displacement, and infrastructure pressures from 2006 to 2024. An integrated approach was employed, combining Landsat satellite imagery analysis (30 m resolution) using supervised classification with the Maximum Likelihood Classifier and post-classification change detection. Conflict event data were sourced from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), while internal displacement data were obtained from the International Organization for Migration’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Spatial analyses, including Kernel Density Estimation, were conducted using ENVI and GIS software to identify conflict hotspots. Results indicate that from 2006 to 2014, farmland expanded from 46.5% to 67.9%, reducing natural vegetation from 52.5% to 30.1%, while built-up areas doubled from 0.96% to 1.99%. Between 2014 and 2024, farmland slightly declined to 64.3%, vegetation partially recovered to 33%, and urban areas increased to 2.75%. Conflict peaked in 2022 with 102 violent events causing 396 fatalities in Ogossagou, Diallassagou, and Dianwely, displacing over 12,500 people to Bankass, accelerating urbanization, and intensifying resource pressures. These findings demonstrate the complex interplay between conflict and land use changes and highlight the need for integrated strategies that combine security measures, spatial planning, and ecological resilience. The proposed approach can support conservation initiatives and inform policy interventions aimed at sustainable reconstruction in crisis-affected regions.