A Data-driven framework for detecting unsafe ship–bridge passages based on AIS trajectories

Ship–bridge collisions in cross-sea bridge waterways are rare but potentially catastrophic events, making conventional accident-based risk assessment difficult to implement effectively. Existing AIS-based indicators capture vessel behaviors but insufficiently quantify bridge-passage safety margins, especially dynamic aspects such as crossing posture and readiness prior to bridge transit. To address this limitation, this study proposes a data-driven framework for detecting unsafe ship–bridge passages using two bridgepassage- oriented surrogate safety measures (SSMs) and extreme value theory (EVT). The Bridge-passage Lateral Clearance Margin (BLCM) quantifies the effective lateral safety margin retained during the realized bridge-crossing stage, while the Bridge-passage Readiness Lead Time (BRLT) measures how early a vessel becomes stably prepared for bridge passage before crossing. The Peaks Over Threshold (POT) model is first used to characterize the marginal extremes of the two indicators, and a bivariate threshold exceedance model (BTE) is then established to examine their joint risk behavior. Case studies of the Jintang Bridge and Zhoudai Bridge waterways demonstrate that the proposed framework can effectively screen and identify trajectories with unsafe or margin-deficient bridge-passage characteristics. The results show that unsafe passages are typically associated with both reduced lateral clearance and insufficient preparation time, and that joint modeling of the two indicators improves risk identification performance. The findings suggest that ship–bridge risk is better interpreted from the perspective of passage quality deficiency rather than simple geometric proximity. The proposed framework provides an interpretable tool for retrospective unsafe passage screening, traffic monitoring support, and post-event safety analysis in complex bridge waterways.