Reduced incidence of arrest following an extreme risk protection order among respondents in California

Background Extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs) are used to disarm individuals making threats of interpersonal harm, but little is known about respondents’ pre- and post-order criminal behavior. We sought to quantify ERPO respondents’ rate of arrest vis-à-vis timing of the order. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study of Californian respondents with ERPOs issued 2016-2019 and for whom we received ERPO court case files (n=679). Arrest and legal firearm purchasing information was obtained from the California Department of Justice, while contextual information about the respondents and their cases was abstracted from ERPO case files. We used adjusted Poisson models to estimate incident rate ratios (IRRs) for arrest (any arrest and arrest for violence, firearm offenses, and firearm violence) comparing rates 6 months before the ERPO was issued to rates while the ERPO was in effect and 6 months after it expired. Results Respondents were 14-89 years old, 91.9% were men, and 59.9% were non-Hispanic white. Most cases (71%) included interpersonal violence threats. Half of respondents (49.8%) legally purchased a firearm prior to the ERPO and 3.4% purchased firearms in the 6 months following the ERPO’s expiration. Respondents were significantly less likely to be arrested while the ERPO was in effect than during the 6 months prior to it being issued (IRRs ranged from 0.20 [firearm violence] to 0.45 [any arrest]). These associations persisted after the ERPO expired. Conclusions Low incidence rate ratios for arrest after ERPOs were issued suggest ERPOs prevent arrest for criminal behaviors, including violence perpetration, among respondents.