Evaluation of the effect of baseline predictors on the incidence of metabolic syndrome in middle-aged and elderly individuals: a population-based cohort study in Southwest Iran

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a key predictor of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and mortality, causing public health challenge worldwide. This study aimed to estimate the incidence rates and to assess the risk factors of MetS among adults in a prospective cohort study. This population-based cohort study was conducted on 10,009 adult individuals in southwest Iran. After applying the exclusion criteria to the baseline cohort, 1,781 at-risk individuals were eligible and included for follow-up. Incidence rates (IRs) of metabolic syndrome were calculated by dividing the number of new events during the follow-up period by the person-years at risk. The effects of various explanatory variables on these incidence rates were assessed using Poisson regression models. The overall incidence rate of metabolic syndrome (MetS) was 102.23 per 1,000 person-years, higher in females than males, and incidence was significantly associated with older age, female sex, marital status (married / divorced), higher BMI, history of cardiovascular disease, as well as abnormal FBS and elevated triglyceride levels (all p < 0.05). Targeted public health strategies and lifestyle interventions are crucial for reducing the incidence of metabolic syndrome, particularly among high-risk groups such as women, older adults, and individuals with a history of cardiovascular disease.