Arterial Stiffness and Obesity as Predictors of Diabetes: Longitudinal Cohort Study (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Previous studies have confirmed the separate effect of arterial stiffness and obesity on type 2 diabetes; however, the joint effect of arterial stiffness and obesity on diabetes onset remains unclear. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to propose the concept of arterial stiffness obesity phenotype and explore the risk stratification capacity for diabetes. METHODS This longitudinal cohort study used baseline data of 12,298 participants from Beijing Xiaotangshan Examination Center between 2008 and 2013 and then annually followed them until incident diabetes or 2019. BMI (waist circumference) and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity were measured to define arterial stiffness abdominal obesity phenotype. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI. RESULTS Of the 12,298 participants, the mean baseline age was 51.2 (SD 13.6) years, and 8448 (68.7%) were male. After a median follow-up of 5.0 (IQR 2.0-8.0) years, 1240 (10.1%) participants developed diabetes. Compared with the ideal vascular function and nonobese group, the highest risk of diabetes was observed in the elevated arterial stiffness and obese group (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.60-2.35). Those with exclusive arterial stiffness or obesity exhibited a similar risk of diabetes, and the adjusted HRs were 1.63 (95% CI 1.37-1.94) and 1.64 (95% CI 1.32-2.04), respectively. Consistent results were observed in multiple sensitivity analyses, among subgroups of age and fasting glucose level, and alternatively using arterial stiffness abdominal obesity phenotype. CONCLUSIONS This study proposed the concept of arterial stiffness abdominal obesity phenotype, which could improve the risk stratification and management of diabetes. The clinical significance of arterial stiffness abdominal obesity phenotype needs further validation for other cardiometabolic disorders.