Key result
Resting heart rate strongly predicted short-term sudden cardiac death (AUC 0.930 at 3 months), whereas spatial peak QRS-T angle predicted sudden cardiac death 15 years post-ECG (AUC 0.719).
Why the study?
Sudden cardiac death risk is dynamic, but the accuracy of dynamic prediction and the expiration date of ECG biomarkers remain unknown.
Do ECG biomarkers accurately predict sudden cardiac death over time in community-dwelling adults?
Population
15,768 Atherosclerosis Risk In Community study participants with analyzable digital ECGs
Comparison
Global electrical heterogeneity and traditional ECG metrics
Design
Prospective cohort study
Follow-up
Median 24.4 y
Authors
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Different ECG biomarkers may aid time-specific SCD risk assessment in community adults; hypothesis-generating and requires prospective validation before clinical adoption.
Cohort (n=15,768)
Do ECG biomarkers accurately predict sudden cardiac death over time in community-dwelling adults?
ECG biomarkers have different predictive accuracies for sudden cardiac death over time, with most having an 'expiration date' of two years, though spatial peak QRS-T angle can predict SCD up to 15 years.
Alday et al. (2019) conducted a cohort in Sudden cardiac death (n=15,768). Electrocardiographic biomarkers was evaluated on Adjudicated sudden cardiac death. Resting heart rate strongly predicted short-term sudden cardiac death (AUC 0.930 at 3 months), whereas spatial peak QRS-T angle predicted sudden cardiac death 15 years post-ECG (AUC 0.719).
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