Dynamical Evolution and Potential Meteor Activity of Dust Streams from Near-Earth Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in 2024 December, is expected to make a close flyby of the Moon in 2032. During this flyby, tidal forces from the Earth–Moon system may trigger surface-material shedding and release dust particles. Assuming that 2024 YR4 undergoes tidal disruption and ejects dust particles during its close approach to the Earth–Moon system, this study investigates the orbital evolution of the ejected dust particles over 200 yr. The results show that the orbital evolution of dust particles exhibits a pronounced size dependence. Large particles are mainly governed by gravitational perturbations and display dynamical behavior similar to that of the parent body, while micron-sized particles quickly diverge from the parent body orbit. In addition, some of the particles with radii of 50 μ m are trapped in 3J-1 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter. By calculating the minimum orbit intersection distance between the dust particles and Earth and analyzing its evolution, we obtained results showing that potential meteor activity on Earth is most likely to occur within the first 20 yr after dust ejection and during the interval of 80–110 yr.