Beyond the soviet legacy: Energopolitics, extractivism, and a durable carbon lock-in in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan has substantial renewable energy potential, yet its energy system remains dominated by oil and gas. This creates an important puzzle for energy transition research: why has a country with strong renewable resources and formal policy commitments made only limited progress towards a low-carbon energy system? This paper examines how historical, institutional, and political-economic factors have shaped the pace and direction of Azerbaijan's energy transition. Drawing on a qualitative case study, the analysis is based on 61 semi-structured interviews with state, business, third-sector, expert, and student respondents, supported by documentary analysis. The paper argues that Azerbaijan's slow transition cannot be explained by Soviet legacy alone. Instead, it reflects the continued reproduction of a state-centred energopolitical regime, in which political authority, economic strategy, and public expectations remain closely organised around hydrocarbon infrastructures, revenues, and institutions. The analysis identifies four mutually reinforcing mechanisms that sustain carbon lock-in. First, centralised and vertically integrated energy governance creates bureaucratic barriers to renewable energy implementation. Second, fiscal dependence on hydrocarbons and sunk costs in legacy infrastructure continue to direct investment, expertise, and political attention towards fossil fuels. Third, repeated institutional restructuring and fragmented mandates create uncertainty and leave space for informal governance practices to shape implementation. Fourth, hydrocarbon-centred national narratives, subsidised electricity, and state-centred expectations appear to weaken bottom-up pressure for rapid change. The paper contributes to energy transition research by showing how carbon lock-in operates in a post-socialist, extractivist context where the state, rather than private fossil-fuel incumbents alone, is central to regime durability. It concludes that meaningful energy transition in Azerbaijan requires not only new targets and external technical support, but deeper political and institutional change.