Recent Trends in Global Agri‐food Trade and Value Chains

Over the last decade, the rate of global agri-food trade growth has slowed (Figure 1). The value of global agri-food trade increased more than twelve times in constant terms from 1996 to 2016. It then stagnated until 2020 and significantly decreased after then. In the meantime, the share of agri-food trade in total trade has remained constant (7–10 per cent), while the share of agri-food exports embedded in global value chains (GVCs) modestly increased from 28 per cent in 1996 to 33 per cent in 2023. Much of this increase is attributable to developing countries – particularly emerging economies – whose trade structures are often more heavily specialised in agri-food products than those of high-income countries (FAO, 2021). This rise in GVC participation does not extend to Least Developed Countries (LDCs), whose integration remains limited. The trend is especially visible in large emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, such as China, Brazil and India, which have become increasingly active in both exporting and importing along agri-food value chains (Tabe-Ojong et al., 2024). Global agri-food trade trends, 1996–2023, (Value in 1996 bn USD (left axis) and agri-food trade as a share of total merchandise trade (right axis)) Note: The figure shows both the real value of global agri-food trade and the share of agri-food trade in total merchandise trade. The agri-food global value chain (GVC) participation rate refers to the share of agri-food exports that include foreign value-added or are used as inputs in other countries’ exports, reflecting cross-border production integration. Source: Authors’ own composition based on WITS (2025) data. In line with the slowdown of global trade growth, agri-food trade flows have become more regionalised. While the percentage shares of agri-food GVC-related trade by region have remained relatively stable over time (Figure 2), this stability masks important changes in the internal organisation of trade. Asia and Latin America have strengthened their role within agri-food value chains, while Europe and North America have seen a relative decline in their GVC intensity. Rather than a shift in global shares, these patterns point to a gradual re-organisation of agri-food trade around regional clusters. However, trade flows in agri-food products remain highly interconnected as suggested by recent network analysis (Jambor et al., 2023) highlighting key trade hubs and dependencies, showing that agri-food GVCs are increasingly driven by regional clusters. Trade conflicts, Covid-19 disruptions and supply chain vulnerabilities have reinforced the trend of regionalisation (Jambor et al., 2023). Percentage share of agri-food GVC-related trade by region, 1996–2020 (measured in USD) Source: Authors’ own composition based on WITS (2025) data. In terms of sectoral breakdown, agriculture consistently exhibits the lowest level of GVC participation over the period analysed, but its participation has remained broadly stable in recent years. In contrast, manufacturing and utilities – historically the most GVC-intensive sectors – show the strongest recent declines. Services follow a different pattern, with GVC participation increasing in the most recent period. Taken together, these trends suggest that while agri-food value chains are less deeply embedded in cross-border production networks, they have been comparatively more resilient to recent global disruptions (Figure 3). Percentage share of GVC-related trade by sector, 1996–2020 (measured in USD) Source: Authors’ own composition based on WITS (2025) data. On the whole, global agri-food trade trends have seen major shifts recently. In terms of trade values, global agri-food trade has become less globalised and more regional. Moreover, it still seems to be resilient to external shocks compared to other sectors. The role of regional trade hubs has increased due to the changing geopolitical environment with an increasing number of developing countries starting to play a more important role in global agri-food markets. This work was financially supported by the TRADE4SD Horizon Project (Fostering the positive linkages between trade and sustainable development), funded by the European Commission Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 101000551.