This study examines unrest carried out against Chinese-owned and -operated goldmines in Kyrgyzstan. It seeks to predict variations in frequency of this unrest. To this end, it compares these mines on four metrics—(1) regional prosperity, (2) discontent over environmental impact, (3) discontent over hiring practices, and (4) state ownership—and establishes a correlation between each of these variables and unrest frequency. Discontent over environmental impact proves the strongest predictor, while discontent over hiring practices show somewhat less predictive power, with prosperity and state ownership displaying little to none, respectively. Finally, suggestions are offered for future research based on these findings.
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Adam Calkins (2025) studied this question.
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