The landscape of conflict: IDPs, aid and land-use change in Darfur

This article examines spatial changes in production in the presence of civil conflict. A simple model predicts land abandonment which increases with proximity to insecurity, and welfare losses to rural land owners. The model also predicts that food aid can buffer the land-use change impacts generated by war. Spatial data on land use, violent events, displaced populations and aid from 2001–2007 corroborate these predictions in Darfur, Sudan. The results suggest large disruptions in short-term production, with abandonment of agriculture far from the cities, and intensification of land use on their periphery.