Racial and ethnic disparities in longitudinal trajectories of cardiovascular risk factors in U.S. middle-aged and older adults

BACKGROUND: Racial and ethnic disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are well-documented. However, racial and ethnic differences in the longitudinal changes among multiple CVD risk factors are unknown. METHODS: We used prospective cohort data of U.S. adults aged ≥50 in the 2006-2016 Health and Retirement Study. Group-based multi-trajectory models characterized age-related trajectories of systolic blood pressure ([BP] mmHg), non-HDL cholesterol (mg/dL), diabetes mellitus (DM), and smoking. Racial and ethnic differences in the multi-trajectory profiles were examined using multinomial logistic regression. Karlson-Holm-Breen methods were used to assess factors contributing to these associations. RESULTS: Among 10,292 participants (median age: 61), approximately 32% had an overall favorable profile of CVD risk factors. Compared with non-Hispanic White adults, non-Hispanic Black adults were more likely to exhibit elevated systolic BP with high risks of DM (relative risk ratio [RRR] = 3.36; 95% CI, 2.69-4.21; P < .001) and with low risks of DM (RRR = 3.23; 95% CI, 2.38-4.38; P < .001). Non-Hispanic Black adults were also more likely to exhibit high rates of smoking with and without other co-occurring risk factors. Hispanic adults were most likely to exhibit high risks of DM with elevated systolic BP (RRR = 1.74; 95% CI, 1.28-2.38; P < .001) and without elevated systolic BP (RRR = 1.90; 95% CI, 1.50-2.40; P < .001). Education, income, and country-of-origin were significantly associated with the excess CVD risks observed among racial and ethnic minority groups. CONCLUSIONS: Significant racial and ethnic disparities were observed in trajectories of CVD risk factors in U.S. adults. Social determinants largely contributed to these associations in non-Hispanic Black adults and Hispanic adults.