Foul Play: The impact of financial incentives on aggression in sports

We examine the impact of match-specific monetary incentives on match outcome and team behavior in the English Premier League. Our findings reveal that higher financial stakes increase the likelihood of a team winning a match while also encouraging more aggressive play: a £1M increase in the expected award from winning a game raises the probability of winning by 1.1 percentage points and results in an expected rise of 0.07 fouls per game. Teams adapt to financial incentives to maximize success in high-stakes games. These results help sports organizations understand the trade-offs in mitigating misconduct while preserving the competitive intensity of the game.