Modeling and Analysis of Attacks and Counter Defense Mechanisms for Cyber Physical Systems

In this paper, we develop an analytical model based on stochastic Petri nets to capture the dynamics between adversary behavior and defense for cyber physical systems. We consider several types of failures including attrition failure, pervasion failure, and exfiltration failure which can happen to a cyber physical system. Using a modernized electrical grid as an example, we illustrate the parameterization process. Our results reveal optimal design conditions, including the intrusion detection interval, and the redundancy level, under which the modernized electrical grid's mean time to failure is maximized. Further, there exists a design tradeoff between exfiltration failure, attrition failure, and pervasion failure when using redundancy to improve the overall system reliability.