What question did this study set out to answer?

To develop and externally validate regression models that predict 30-day survival and 6-month functional independence following acute and subacute stroke.

April 1, 2002Stroke

Predicting Outcome After Acute and Subacute Stroke

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Authors

CCCarl CounsellUniversity of Aberdeen MDMartin DennisOslo University Hospital MMM. McDowallValley Hospital

Discussion

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Implication

Cohort study reveals six basic clinical variables accurately predict survival and disability after stroke, indicating strong utility for trial stratification.

Key Points

To develop and externally validate regression models that predict 30-day survival and 6-month functional independence following acute and subacute stroke.
Derived prognostic regression models with varying complexity using predictor variables collected within 30 days of onset in 530 stroke incidence patients.
Externally validated models on two independent cohorts of stroke patients (N=538 and N=1330).
Evaluated model performance using calibration plots and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
A simple model containing six clinical variables (age, living alone, pre-stroke daily living independence, verbal Glasgow Coma Scale, arm power, and walking ability) matched complex models, achieving AUCs of 0.84 to 0.88.
Models demonstrated good overall calibration but showed overoptimism in patients with the highest predicted probabilities of functional independence.
Discriminative performance remained consistent across stroke subtypes (ischemic vs. hemorrhagic), timing of assessment (<48 hours vs. later), and history of prior stroke.

Cite This Study

Counsell et al. (2002) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a167e855deceb32b76560e3 https://doi.org/10.1161/hs0402.105909

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April 1, 2002Stroke

Predicting Outcome After Acute and Subacute Stroke

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

CCCarl CounsellUniversity of Aberdeen MDMartin DennisOslo University Hospital MMM. McDowallValley Hospital

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Cohort study reveals six basic clinical variables accurately predict survival and disability after stroke, indicating strong utility for trial stratification.

Key Points

To develop and externally validate regression models that predict 30-day survival and 6-month functional independence following acute and subacute stroke.
Derived prognostic regression models with varying complexity using predictor variables collected within 30 days of onset in 530 stroke incidence patients.
Externally validated models on two independent cohorts of stroke patients (N=538 and N=1330).
Evaluated model performance using calibration plots and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
A simple model containing six clinical variables (age, living alone, pre-stroke daily living independence, verbal Glasgow Coma Scale, arm power, and walking ability) matched complex models, achieving AUCs of 0.84 to 0.88.
Models demonstrated good overall calibration but showed overoptimism in patients with the highest predicted probabilities of functional independence.
Discriminative performance remained consistent across stroke subtypes (ischemic vs. hemorrhagic), timing of assessment (<48 hours vs. later), and history of prior stroke.

Cite This Study

Counsell et al. (2002) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a167e855deceb32b76560e3 https://doi.org/10.1161/hs0402.105909

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