Substituting car trips with public and active transport in European urban areas: Quantifying potential modal shift across the EU27

Background Short car trips (SCTs) in urban areas represent a key opportunity to promote walking, cycling, and public transport, contributing to climate mitigation and public health. However, harmonized EU27-wide estimates of SCT substitution potential using individual-level travel survey data remain limited. Methods We analyzed individual-level data from the 2021 EU Passenger Mobility Survey (n = 111,525; ages 15–84), restricting analyses to adults living in urban areas. Using a harmonized methodology, we examined urban car trips under 3 km and between 3 and 7 km. We estimated the proportion of SCTs potentially replaceable by walking, cycling, and public transport under three scenarios: (i) realistic, based on current country-specific modal shares; (ii) conservative, assuming 50% of realistic substitution; and (iii) ambitious, doubling realistic shares capped at 35% per mode and distance band. Results SCTs represented 48% of daily urban car travel in the EU27 (≈354.8 million trips/day), including 11% under 3 km and 37% between 3 and 7 km. In the realistic scenario, 35.7 million trips/day under 3 km could shift to walking and 14.4 million to cycling. For trips between 3 and 7 km, 14.1 million could shift to public transport and 7.7 million to cycling, corresponding to 10.3% of SCTs. Regional differences were substantial, with higher walking potential in Southern and Eastern Europe and higher cycling potential in Northern and Western Europe, especially in the Netherlands and Denmark. Conservative and ambitious scenarios estimated 25.1 million and 71.5 million replaceable SCTs/day, respectively. Conclusions A substantial share of urban car trips in the EU27 could be replaced by active and public transport. Regional variation highlights the importance of context-specific strategies, combining optimization of existing systems with targeted investments and policies to support sustainable modal shift.