Uncovering the spatio-temporal patterns and drivers of 30 years of greening in South UK landscapes

Context Anthropogenic pressures are pushing ecosystems towards collapse by disrupting their structure and functioning. Whilst ecological responses to climate and land cover changes are widely addressed at the global scale, a notable knowledge gap remains at the landscape level—a critical scale for translating science into action . Objectives To evaluate the impacts of anthropogenic pressures on ecosystem functioning at the landscape scale. Specifically, we assess the influence of climate trends and land cover changes on the spatial and temporal patterns of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over a 30-year period (1995–2024). Methods Using Sussex (UK) as a study area, we examined spatio-temporal patterns in climate trends and NDVI – used as a proxy for vegetation distribution and productivity—over three decades based on satellite imagery. We characterized the spatial heterogeneity of observed changes and evaluated the role of climate and land cover changes as drivers of long-term NDVI dynamics. Results We found an overall increase in NDVI across the study area and all land cover types (MK tau value = 0.605, p-value < 0.01, TS slope = 0.0044 ∆NDVI yr⁻ 1 ), marginally correlated with increasing average temperatures (ρ ≈ 0.34, p = 0.067). This increase in NDVI showed spatially heterogenous patterns with distinct hotspots of NDVI change (Local Moran’s I) linked to changes in land cover types. We detected rising temperatures in Sussex (annual average temperatures: Mann–Kendall (MK) tau value = 0.297, p-value = 0.022, Theil-Sen (TS) slope = 0.026 ℃ yr⁻ 1 ), but rainfall levels have not changed significantly (annual average rainfall: MK tau value = 0.21, p-value = 0.108, TS slope = 4.91 mm yr⁻ 1 ). Discussion These findings show a positive relationship between rising temperatures and vegetation greening, as reflected by NDVI gains with spatially heterogenous patterns associated with land cover changes and hotspots of NDVI change. Our study provides spatially explicit evidence to support effective landscape management strategies and inform policies by demonstrating the interaction between anthropogenic pressures at the landscape level. Because the landscape is a relevant scale at which environmental change and its outcomes are perceived, our results offer insights to address the effects of global and local changes.