Modeling and Reliability Assessment of Wind Farm Energy Production Considering Wake Effects and Performance Degradation

To address limitations in existing wind farm energy production calculation and reliability assessment—including simplified wake effects, neglected performance degradation, and over-reliance on large-sample data—this study proposes a belief-reliability modeling framework integrating wake dynamics, performance degradation, and dual-uncertainty analysis. It quantifies wake-induced wind speed deficits, captures the degradation of the wind energy utilization coefficient, and models external and internal uncertainties, with external uncertainty referring to wind speed, which follows a Weibull distribution, and internal uncertainty referring to the degradation of the wind energy utilization coefficient, which falls into the category of epistemic uncertainty. By integrating belief reliability theory, a power generation demand reliability metric is developed to enable accurate assessment for data-limited wind farms, and case studies confirm that the framework improves life cycle energy production and reliability prediction accuracy while supporting wind farm design, maintenance, and energy planning.