INDIAS BILATERAL TRADE DYNAMICS WITH STRATEGIC PARTNERS A Comparative Analysis of Trade Trends with USA, UAE, China, Russia, and the UK 20202025

Background: In the post-pandemic global economy, characterized by supply chain realignments, geopolitical conflicts (notably the Russia-Ukraine war), and shifting trade pacts, India’s bilateral trade relationships have undergone significant transformation. This study examines India’s trade dynamics with five key partners—USA, UAE, China, Russia, and the UK—over a five-year period (2020-2025). Methodology: The study utilizes secondary data extracted from the Export-Import Data Bank (EIDB), Government of India. Quantitative analysis of Export, Import, Total Trade, Trade Balance, and Share Percentages was conducted. Growth rates were analyzed to identify structural breaks and emerging trends. Findings: The USA remains India’s most significant export partner with consistent growth and a positive trade balance. The UAE shows robust growth driven by the CEPA agreement. China presents a persistent and widening trade deficit, despite a decline in export share. Russia displays a dramatic import surge post-2022, flipping a minor trade relationship into a critical energy partnership. The UK demonstrates steady, balanced growth with a consistent trade surplus. Conclusion: India’s trade landscape is polarizing: defensive dependencies (China, Russia) are rising in deficit, while strategic autonomy is exercised via surpluses with the West and UAE. Policy implications suggest a need for export diversification to China and value-add retention in Russia trade.