Understanding how staple-crop geography aligns with climate resources is important for food-security planning under climate change. Focusing on rice, winter wheat and maize in China from 2001 to 2020, this study constructed 1 km crop-abundance grids from annual 30 m crop-distribution data and integrated weighted centres of gravity (COGs), Standard Deviational Ellipses (SDEs), effective accumulated temperature and a Climate Resource Matching Index (CRMI) to evaluate crop migration, spatial-form change and matching with thermal, pluvial and radiant resource centres. Results show that rice exhibited the strongest northeastward migration, with a cumulative COG path of 448.9 km, but its CRMI declined markedly, indicating that thermal relaxation did not translate into coordinated multi-resource improvement. Winter wheat remained anchored in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, with adjustment mainly occurring through internal concentration and persistent moisture constraints. Maize showed expansion before 2015 followed by partial correction, and its CRMI trough in 2015 was robust under alternative weighting schemes. Overall, China’s staple-crop change represents a differentiated spatial reconfiguration rather than a uniform northward shift. Because these metrics are national-scale, the findings should inform crop zoning as broad spatial signals rather than direct local yield responses.
Shi et al. (2026) studied this question.