Global climate change significantly alters regional agricultural resources, posing complex challenges to crop production. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal evolution of climatic resources across six phenological stages of single-season rice in Jiangsu Province from 1961 to 2020, aiming to elucidate their specific and compound impacts on yield. Spatiotemporal analysis reveals a highly significant and accelerated warming trend across the region, characterized by the continuous expansion and northward shift of high-temperature zones. This warming promotes crop growth during the early vegetative and late grain-filling stages. Solar radiation experienced a ubiquitous and severe decadal dimming, particularly during the early vegetative phases, although the negative impact of this reduced radiation on final yield was found to be partially offset. Furthermore, effective precipitation exhibited an overall increasing trend but with exacerbated spatial polarization, especially the rapid increase during tillering stage in the south. Potential evapotranspiration continuously declined alongside a complete spatial reversal from a historically north-high pattern to a south-high distribution. These findings highlight the highly complex and phenology specific responses of rice to current climatic shifts. This study provides critical scientific insights for optimizing regional cropping systems, mitigating the risks of compound climate extremes, and breeding climate-resilient rice varieties to ensure regional food security.
Jiang et al. (Mon,) studied this question.