Renewable energy consumption and its effects on unemployment: a study of selected middle-income Asian economies

Purpose This study investigates the short-run and long-run employment effects of renewable energy consumption across twelve middle-income Asian economies from 1995 to 2022. Design/methodology/approach The research employs a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model using the pooled mean group (PMG) technique. This framework allows for heterogeneous short-run dynamics while identifying a common long-run equilibrium, controlling for economic growth, inflation, FDI, labor participation, and technology exports (as an indirect proxy). Findings While renewable energy consumption has no significant short-run effect in most countries, excluding Indonesia and the Philippines, in the long run, increasing the renewable energy share significantly raises unemployment across the region. Research limitations/implications By combining long-run and short-run perspectives, this study provides new empirical evidence on the labor market consequences of the energy transition in emerging Asian economies. It highlights the need for tailored, country-specific labor policies to mitigate transitional unemployment and ensure inclusive green growth. Originality/value This paper provides one of the first income-group-based assessments of the energy-unemployment nexus in emerging Asia. By reconciling conflicting evidence through a temporal lens, this study demonstrates that the employment trade-offs of the green transition are primarily long-term, necessitating proactive institutional foresight.