Bird community patterns and indicator species for monitoring fragmented Miombo and Mopane woodlands in southern Zambia

Biodiversity loss in subtropical dry forests and woodlands is accelerating, particularly where agricultural expansion has transformed woodland mosaics in human-modified landscapes outside protected areas. In Southern Zambia, the dry woodland biome is dominated by Miombo and locally by Mopane formations, which differ markedly in floristic composition, structure, soils, and disturbance regimes. We assessed bird assemblages across three woodland types ( Hilly Miombo, Plateau Miombo, and Mopane woodland patches), compared diversity patterns among sites, and evaluated the potential of bird species as ecological indicators for long-term ecosystem monitoring. Combining community-level analyses (NMDS, diversity indices, rank–abundance distributions) with species-level approaches (IndVal and N-mixture models), we recorded 10,292 individuals from 212 species, representing about 70% of the region’s woodland avifauna. Indicator species analysis identified six candidate species strongly associated with Mopane and six with Hilly Miombo , whereas Plateau Miombo , characterized by long-term disturbance and community homogenization, yielded only one indicator species. N-mixture models produced 98 significant detections and 78 statistically significant abundance estimates, providing detection-corrected population baselines. Our findings demonstrate that fragmented woodland mosaics still support substantial bird diversity, despite sustained anthropogenic pressures. The identified indicator species, coupled with abundance-based modelling, offer a practical foundation for long-term monitoring of habitat change and guiding conservation and land-use planning in Zambia’s dry forest landscapes.