Cardiovascular and Metabolic Predictors of Progression of Prehypertension Into Hypertension

Prehypertension (defined by the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure) frequently evolves to hypertension (HTN) and increases cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether metabolic and/or cardiac characteristics favor development of HTN in prehypertensive subjects. We evaluated baseline anthropometric, laboratory, and echocardiographic characteristics of 625 untreated prehypertensive participants in the Strong Heart Study, without prevalent cardiovascular disease (63% women; 22% with diabetes mellitus; mean age: 59+/-7 years) to identify predictors of the 4-year incidence of HTN. Diabetes mellitus was assessed by American Diabetic Association criteria, and a diabetes-specific definition of HTN was used. Four-year incidence of HTN was 38%. Incident HTN was independently predicted by baseline systolic blood pressure (odds ratio OR: 1.60 per 10 mm Hg; 95% CI: 1.30 to 2.00; P0.10). Thus, progression to HTN in 38% of Strong Heart Study prehypertensive participants could be predicted by higher left ventricular mass and stroke volume in addition to baseline systolic blood pressure and prevalent diabetes mellitus.