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Reprinted from Science, Volume 247, March 30, 1990, page 1529. Virtually everyone, children included, is concerned about global climate change and especially about the greenhouse effect. They have learned of increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. They have been told repeatedly that temperatures will increase 9°F. Political pressure is mounting to take action regardless of cost, and to take action now. But how good is the evidence, and how likely is there to be substantial global warming arising from anthropogenic causes? When might it happen? If the situation is analyzed applying the customary standards of scientific inquiry one must conclude that there has been more hype than solid facts. Some of the questions include: Are the computer models that predict large-scale warming rigorous? What has been the effect an climate of anthropogenic additions of greenhouse gases? Will atmospheric concentrations of 0C2 double by the middle of the next century?
Philip H. Abelson (Fri,) studied this question.