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ABSTRACT: With the advent of standards and criteria for water quality variables, there has been an increasing concern about the changes of these variables over time. Thus, sound statistical methods for determining the presence or absence of trends are needed. A Trend Detection Method is presented that provides: 1) Hypothesis Formulation ‐ statement of the problem to be tested, 2) Data Preparation ‐ selection of water quality variable and data, 3) Data Analysis ‐ exploratory data analysis techniques, and 4) Statistical Tests ‐ tests for detecting trends. The method is utilized in a stepwise fashion and is presented in a nonstatistical manner to allow use by those not well versed in statistical theory. While the emphasis herein is on lakes, the method may be adopted easily to other water bodies.
Montgomery et al. (Wed,) studied this question.