The longitudinal relationship between schools’ academic optimism and academic achievement in elementary schools: evidence from a school panel study

Abstract Background Academic optimism (i.e., academic emphasis, collective efficacy, and faculty trust) describes the striving for a high-achieving learning environment. It has been identified as an important factor for students’ academic achievement at the school level to directly promote the academic achievement of all students, independent of their background. So far, mostly empirical studies using cross-sectional designs have revealed a statistically significant positive relationship between academic optimism and academic achievement. Current research using longitudinal designs at the school level over more than two years and examining elementary schools, a critical stage in a child’s school career, at the same time, is comparatively scarce. This study investigated the association between academic optimism and students’ reading achievement at the school level over five years. Specifically, we examined the school’s academic optimism in 2016 and its relationship to the reading achievement of the fourth-grade students in 2021, and its association with the change in reading achievement from 2016 to 2021. Methods In this study, we used data from school principals and fourth-grade students from N = 111 schools participating in a school panel study in Germany in 2016 and 2021. We focused on analyzing the long-term relationship of all three facets of academic optimism on students’ reading achievement by using linear mixed-effect models and considering central control variables (e.g., socioeconomic status and migration background). Results The results indicated a statistically significant association between collective efficacy in 2016 and students’ reading achievement in 2021, when considering control variables. Higher collective efficacy of schools was associated with higher reading achievement of fourth-grade students five years later. For academic emphasis and faculty trust, no significant relationship with students’ future reading achievement was revealed. Additionally, the reading achievement from 2016 to 2021 was not related to the facets of academic optimism. Conclusion The study reveals important findings regarding the relevance of academic optimism and, particularly, collective efficacy for students’ academic achievement in elementary schools. Additionally, the panel data structure also enabled the detection of the missing protective function of academic optimism against the negative development of achievement, which requires further exploration. Implications for research and practice are discussed.