The relation between heavy alcohol use and bar patronage: a latent growth model.

OBJECTIVE: Random effects latent growth (LG) models were used to study the relation between changes in heavy alcohol use and changes in the frequency of bar patronage over a 3-year period. Previous research has identified a close link between alcohol use and bar patronage, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about possible temporal ordering. LG models are highlighted and compared with the more traditional but restricted cross-lagged models. METHOD: Three annual measures of heavy alcohol use and frequency of bar patronage were administered to a sample of 3071 adults (62% male) who participated in the National Longitudinal Study of Youch from 1982 to 1984. Background variables included age, gender, ethnicity and marital status. RESULTS: Heavy alcohol use and bar patronage were characterized by negative longitudinal growth trajectories and there was significant individual variability in these changes over time. Changes in heavy alcohol use closely paralleled corresponding changes in bar patronage. Finally, the Time 1 measures of each construct were inversely predictive of subsequent changes over time in the second construct. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that heavy alcohol users tended to continue to patronize bars, and bar patronage tended to encourage continued heavy alcohol use. This relation was particularly strong for singles and males. Compared to more traditional cross-lagged models, LG modeling appears to be a much stronger analytic technique for studying growth over time. It is recommended that LG models be used for future studies of change in alcohol use over time.